Pit any two drivers across 10,000 race scenarios at this intermediatetrack. Enter the book's odds and we'll show your edge vs the fair price.
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Optionally enter the book's odds for an edge calculation.
Pit any two NASCAR Xfinity Series drivers head-to-head for the Andy's Frozen Custard 300 at Texas Motor Speedway. The simulator runs 10,000 race scenarios under intermediate-track conditions and returns the win probability for each driver, side-by-side track stats, the correlation between their DK fantasy outcomes, and a record of past head-to-head finishes. Enter American odds for each side and the page shows the gap between the simulator's probability and the no-vig fair price.
We run 10,000 simulated races for the upcoming event, then count what percentage of those races each driver finishes ahead of the other. Ties (rare — they happen when both drivers DNF in the same scenario) are split 50/50.
When you enter both drivers' American odds from a sportsbook, the page strips the book's vig and computes the no-vig fair probability for each side. Edge is the gap between the simulator's probability and that fair probability — a +8% edge on Driver A means the simulator's probability is 8 percentage points higher than the implied fair-price probability.
Two drivers can land on the same finish position when they both DNF in the same scenario and the engine assigns them random late-field positions. Ties typically account for ~0.1% of scenarios. They're split evenly between A and B in the displayed percentages so the totals always sum to 100%.
The correlation coefficient (r) measures whether the two drivers' simulated DK points move together or independently across the 10,000 scenarios. r near 0 means their outcomes are independent. Positive r means they tend to score well or poorly together. Negative r means one driver's good race tends to coincide with the other's bad race.
