Allegiance 200 Preview: Nashville Truck Series Projections, Odds & DFS

The Craftsman Truck Series opens the Nashville weekend with the Allegiance 200 on Friday, May 29 at 8:00 PM ET. It runs 150 laps around Nashville Superspeedway, a 1.333-mile concrete intermediate with 14° of banking, broken into stages of 45 / 95 / 150. Trucks run the D-6110 left-side and D-6148 right-side compound, an intermediate combination where tire fall-off is medium, so long-run balance and pit-road execution matter.

These numbers come from our 10,000-run Truck Series simulator, the live market odds, and the DraftKings pricing. You can rerun every number yourself, and build your own lineup pool, in the Simulator.

Remember to come back after qualifying for updated projections.

Top of the Board

Five trucks lead the win model:

• Ross Chastain (+450, $10,500) leads the model at 15.9% to win with a 44.8 projected DK mean and the field's strongest top-10 floor (82.6%). The book prices him slightly higher than the model does (18.2% implied), so he is a strong on-track favorite but only a neutral DFS value at the top salary.
• Giovanni Ruggiero (+1050, $9,500) is the model's top value at 15.4% to win and the highest projected DK mean in the field (45.4), with a 34.2% optimal rate. The book has him at just 8.7% implied, the biggest positive gap on the board.
• Kaden Honeycutt (+400, $11,000) sits at 14.3% to win with a 56.4% top-5 number, but at the highest salary and shortest odds the market is paying full price.
• Ty Majeski (+1700, $8,800) projects at 11.0% to win against 5.6% implied, a large model edge at a mid-range price.
• Rajah Caruth (+1050, $9,700) comes in at 9.1% to win with a 44.2 DK mean and a 79.4% top-10 number, a stable, high-floor option.

See the full driver-by-driver composite on the Power Rankings board.

Model Edges: Win Equity vs. the Book

Where our win probability runs well ahead of the implied odds:

1. Giovanni Ruggiero: 15.4% model vs. 8.7% book (+6.7 pts, +1050)
2. Ty Majeski: 11.0% model vs. 5.6% book (+5.4 pts, +1700)
3. Brandon Jones: 5.1% model vs. 3.8% book (+1.3 pts, +2500)

Testing a specific matchup bet? Drop any two trucks into the Head-to-Head tool to get the simulated win-the-matchup probability before you place it.

DFS Value & Leverage

The salary-to-projection picture rewards a few trucks more than their win odds suggest:

• Tyler Ankrum ($8,100): the highest optimal rate on the board at 41.8%, despite a 3.5% win number, on a 39.4 DK mean. The top leverage play in the $50K optimal.
• Justin Haley ($6,800): a 29.7 DK mean and a 31.3% optimal at a low price, strong points per dollar.
• Christian Eckes ($9,200): a 42.6 DK mean and a 35.4% optimal. The win number is light, but the floor plays in cash.
• Grant Enfinger ($7,800): a 30.4% optimal and a 33.8 DK mean, a reliable mid-tier core play.
• Corey LaJoie ($7,000): a 27.3 DK mean and a 22.4% optimal at a low salary.

Cheapest option with some upside: Dawson Sutton ($5,600) has an 18.5% optimal and a 22.4 DK mean, the best of the minimum-salary group if you need to pay up elsewhere.

Friday Edges: Practice & Pit Road

Truck qualifying and the race run close together, so the best read on real speed is long-run pace, not the time sheet. The Practice Analyzer ranks every truck by 10- and 20-lap averages and best-lap consistency as soon as the session posts, so you can confirm or fade these projections before lineups lock.

Nashville's concrete surface and three stages put a premium on track position, which makes pit road a tiebreaker. The Pit Stop Analyzer ranks each team's average and best stop times, so you know which contenders gain spots on pit road and which give them back.

How to Use This Week

• Simulator: run your own 10,000-race distribution and generate an optimized lineup pool.
• Power Rankings: the full field composite, including the odds anchor.
• Head-to-Head: simulated matchup-win probabilities for prop and DFS H2H bets.
• Practice Analyzer: long-run speed and consistency once Friday practice posts.
• Pit Stop Analyzer: crew-by-crew stop times and track-position impact.

Get the Full Board

Create a free account to unlock all the data, then go Pro to unlock the full simulator, every projection and optimal percentage, the complete odds board, and the Practice and Pit Stop analyzers for all three series. Create your free account or see Pro plans. New tools and race previews post every weekend. Already a member? Sign in here.