Charbroil 300 Preview: O'Reilly Series Picks, Odds & Power Rankings at Charlotte

NASCAR's O'Reilly Series heads to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Charbroil 300 on Saturday, May 23 at 5:00 PM ET, a 200-lap intermediate test wedged between the Friday-night Truck race and the Sunday-night Coca-Cola 600. Practice opens the day at 11:00 AM ET, qualifying at 12:05 PM ET, green flag at 5:00 PM ET.

The book has the top of the board jammed into a two-way coin flip — Connor Zilisch and Justin Allgaier both at +350 (22.2% implied each) — and a tight third tier of Ross Chastain and Corey Day at +650 (13.3% each). Our 10,000-iteration race simulator agrees on the two co-favorites but reads that third tier very differently: the model has Day at 3.2% and Chastain at 5.4%, a combined 18-point haircut from the implied probability. The model's actual third-most-likely winner is Brent Crews at +1000, and the cleanest positive edges all sit one tier down in the $9K mid-tier.

The track: Charlotte O'Reilly, 1.5-mile intermediate

Charlotte is a 1.5-mile asphalt intermediate banked at 24° in the turns, the prototype for the modern intermediate package. Cars run wide, restarts stack three-wide into Turn 1, and the long backstretch rewards both straight-line speed and short-run grip off Turn 4. Pit road timing matters here — the pit window is long enough that crew-speed deltas of half a second compound across stages two and three. Stage lengths are 45 / 90 / 200.

O'Reilly runs the D-6110 left / D-6160 right Goodyear compound at Charlotte, the same setup the Truck Series used the night before. That cross-series read gives us a useful base rate on right-side fall-off across the same banking and surface, particularly through the back half of each stage.

See the full Charlotte O'Reilly historical track stats →

Top contenders by the book

Connor Zilisch, +350 (book), 20.1% Win (model)

The co-favorite. Book at +350 (22.2% implied), model right behind at 20.1% — a 2-point calibration gap, not a fade. Zilisch brings 1 Charlotte O'Reilly start and 19 intermediate O'Reilly starts in our data, a real sample for a young driver. Top-5 sits at 61.2%, Top-10 at 83.0%, mean DK of 59.7. He's the #1 DFS Optimal play at 35.6% on a $12,000 salary — the chalkiest tournament anchor on the board.

Run your own Charbroil 300 simulation →

Justin Allgaier, +350 (book), 18.1% Win (model)

The other half of the coin flip. Book also at +350 (22.2% implied), model at 18.1% — a 4-point haircut, the largest among the model's top three. What earns him equal billing with Zilisch is the sample: 3 Charlotte / 52 intermediate O'Reilly starts, the deepest profile of any contender. Top-5 of 58.1%, Top-10 of 81.6%, mean DK of 56.9, $13,000 salary, 28.8% Optimal. Slightly more expensive than Zilisch, slightly more conservative model read — the cash-game anchor where Zilisch is the GPP shot.

Brent Crews, +1000 (book), 9.2% Win (model)

The model's actual third-most-likely winner, even though the book has him tied with Brandon Jones at +1000 (9.1% implied) behind the Day/Chastain third tier. Model is 9.2% vs 9.1% implied — effectively flat with book on Win %, but the projection still has him meaningfully ahead of Chastain (5.4%) and Day (3.2%). The catch: a thin sample (0 Charlotte / 5 intermediate O'Reilly starts), so the model is leaning on his caliber more than his track history. Top-5 of 44.1%, Top-10 of 74.3%, $10,000 salary, 28.4% Optimal.

Get the full O'Reilly Series power rankings →

Three sleepers our model likes

Mid-tier drivers where our simulator's Win % sits above the book's implied probability. The three biggest positive edges on the board are all clustered in the $9K range, with deep intermediate-track samples.

Jesse Love, +1600 (book), 6.9% Win (model)

The biggest positive edge on the board. Book at +1600 (5.9% implied), model at 6.9% — a +1.0% edge. Love brings 2 Charlotte / 37 intermediate O'Reilly starts, a solid sample for the projection to lean on. Top-5 of 38.0%, Top-10 of 70.7%, mean DK of 45.8. At $9,000 salary with 28.6% Optimal, he's one of the most efficient mid-tier plays on the board — a tournament-anchor caliber pick at a price that won't lock out your top-tier salary.

Sam Mayer, +1400 (book), 7.6% Win (model)

A whisker behind Love at +0.9% edge — book +1400 (6.7% implied), model 7.6%. Mayer's experience profile is deep and clean: 3 Charlotte / 51 intermediate O'Reilly starts, the same sample depth as Allgaier and Creed. Top-5 of 39.3%, Top-10 of 72.2%, mean DK of 47.9, on a $9,200 salary with 29.6% Optimal — the #2 Optimal mark on the entire board, just behind Zilisch. The most efficient salary play in the mid-tier.

Sheldon Creed, +1400 (book), 7.4% Win (model)

The third of the $9K trio. Book +1400 (6.7% implied), model 7.4% — a +0.7% edge. Same profile as Mayer and Allgaier: 3 Charlotte / 52 intermediate O'Reilly starts. Top-5 of 38.1%, Top-10 of 70.3%, mean DK of 47.6, $9,500 salary, 27.6% Optimal. A defensible third leg of a Mayer/Love/Creed stack, or a single-driver pivot off the Zilisch chalk.

Compare any two of these drivers head-to-head →

Where our model sees the biggest edges

The three plays where our 10,000-iteration sim has a Win % above the book's implied probability — all clustered in the $9K mid-tier with deep intermediate samples.

Jesse Love, model 6.9% vs market 5.9% implied (+1.0% edge). The biggest positive gap on the board, $9,000 salary, 28.6% Optimal.

Sam Mayer, model 7.6% vs market 6.7% implied (+0.9% edge). Top-tier intermediate sample at a mid-tier price, 29.6% Optimal — the second-best Optimal mark on the board.

Sheldon Creed, model 7.4% vs market 6.7% implied (+0.7% edge). Identical sample depth to Allgaier and Mayer at $9,500, with 27.6% Optimal.

See the full odds + edge board across all three series →