Cracker Barrel 400 Preview: Nashville Cup Series Projections & Odds

The Cup Series closes the Nashville weekend with the Cracker Barrel 400 on Sunday, May 31 at 7:00 PM ET at Nashville Superspeedway, a 1.333-mile concrete intermediate with 14° of banking. The race runs 300 laps, with stages ending on laps 90 / 185 / 300. Cars run the D-5284 left-side and D-5290 right-side compound, a combination where tire management over long green-flag runs separates the field.

These numbers come from our 10,000-run Cup Series simulator, the live market odds, and the DraftKings pricing. You can rerun every number yourself, and build your own lineup pool, in the Simulator.

Top of the Board

Three cars headline the slate:

• Kyle Larson (+800, $10,500) leads the win model at 24.6% against just 11.1% implied, the largest odds gap on the board. He pairs that with a 52.8 DK mean and a 38.4% optimal rate. Chevrolet’s struggles are well documented, and Toyotas have been the speed all year…but +800 seems long for Larson at any track like Nashville.
• Denny Hamlin (+400, $11,000) carries the field's best projection: a 63.0 DK mean, a 68.7% top-10 number, and the board's top optimal rate at 40.3%, on a 16.3% win number. The book prices him highest of anyone (20.0% implied), and he is the top salary on the slate.
• Ryan Blaney (+600, $10,000) sits at 16.7% to win with a 54.5 DK mean and a 37.6% optimal rate, and has the most impressive stats on correlated tracks. Expect this odds number to go down, and expect Blaney to compete for a pole on Saturday.
• Ty Gibbs (+1400, $9,000) projects at 9.4% to win against 6.7% implied, with a 45.3 DK mean.
• Chase Briscoe (+1200, $9,700) has a modest 5.1% win number but a strong 54.0 DK mean and a 72.1% top-10 floor.
• Chase Elliott (+1400, $9,500) rounds out the group at 7.8% to win.

See the full driver-by-driver composite on the Power Rankings board.

Model Edges: Win Equity vs. the Book

Where our win probability runs ahead of the implied odds:

1. Kyle Larson: 24.6% model vs. 11.1% book (+13.5 pts, +800)
2. Ty Gibbs: 9.4% model vs. 6.7% book (+2.7 pts, +1400)
3. Ryan Blaney: 16.7% model vs. 14.3% book (+2.4 pts, +600)

Testing a specific matchup bet? Drop any two cars into the Head-to-Head tool to get the simulated win-the-matchup probability before you place it.

DFS Value & Leverage

The salary-to-projection picture sorts out cleanly at Nashville:

• Denny Hamlin ($11,000): the top play overall, with a 63.0 DK mean and a board-best 40.3% optimal rate.
• Kyle Larson ($10,500): a 52.8 DK mean, a 38.4% optimal, and the slate's biggest odds edge.
• Ryan Blaney ($10,000): a 54.5 DK mean and a 37.6% optimal.
• Chase Briscoe ($9,700): a 54.0 DK mean and a 32.0% optimal, with a 72.1% top-10 floor that plays in cash.
• Corey Heim ($7,000): a 30.0 DK mean and a 25.4% optimal, the best low-salary leverage on the board.

Cheaper options with leverage: Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,500) carries a 19.4% optimal on a 23.6 DK mean, and Alex Bowman ($7,400) posts a 20.9% optimal with a 27.8 mean.

Weekend Edges: Practice & Pit Road

Practice and qualifying run Saturday, the race Sunday, so the cleanest read on real speed is long-run pace rather than the time sheet. The Practice Analyzer ranks every car by 10- and 20-lap averages and best-lap consistency as soon as the session posts, so you can confirm or fade these projections before lineups lock.

Nashville's concrete surface and three stages put a premium on track position, which makes pit road a tiebreaker. The Pit Stop Analyzer ranks each team's average and best stop times, so you know which contenders gain spots on pit road and which give them back.

How to Use This Week

• Simulator: run your own 10,000-race distribution and generate an optimized lineup pool.
• Power Rankings: the full field composite, including the odds anchor.
• Head-to-Head: simulated matchup-win probabilities for prop and DFS H2H bets.
• Practice Analyzer: long-run speed and consistency once Saturday practice posts.
• Pit Stop Analyzer: crew-by-crew stop times and track-position impact.

Get the Full Board

Create a free account to get access to all the daya, then go Pro to unlock the full simulator, every projection and optimal percentage, the complete odds board, and the Practice and Pit Stop analyzers for all three series. Create your free account or see Pro plans. New tools and race previews post every weekend. Already a member? Sign in here.