EcoSave 200 Preview: Dover Truck Series Picks, Odds & Power Rankings

NASCAR's Truck Series goes green for the EcoSave 200 at Dover Motor Speedway on Friday, May 15 at 5:00 PM ET. Practice ran Friday afternoon and qualifying set the grid. Three takes shifted, two held, and one pre-race favorite collapsed under the lights.

Kyle Busch is on pole. Christopher Bell led the field in single-lap pace with 15 session-fastest laps. Ty Majeski qualified second and posted the joint-fastest lap of practice. Here's the full updated preview after the model digested practice and qualifying.

The track: Dover in a Truck

The Monster Mile is the schedule's only 1.0-mile concrete oval banked at 24°. Passing is at a premium, tire fall-off rules the late laps of each stage, and pit-road timing is amplified by the short window between stops. Stage lengths are 45 / 90 / 200.

Trucks ran the D-6106 left / D-6148 right compound at Dover this weekend, with practice times settling in the 22.4 to 23.5 second range for the front of the field. Drop-off across the session was modest for the top contenders, which is the most predictive signal we have for race pace.

See the full Dover Truck Series historical track stats: https://fastlap.io/trucks/track-stats

Top contenders after practice + qualifying

Kyle Busch, starts P1, +375 pre-practice (book), 26.2 percent Win (model)

The chalk got chalkier. Busch was No. 1 in best-10 average after 10 laps at 23.116s, posted 5 session-fastest laps, and his drop-off slope was +0.002 sec/lap, which is essentially zero fade across 39 timed laps. He qualified on pole and starts P1 on a track where qualifying position matters more than at any other 1-mile. Our model already had him at 26.2 percent to win pre-practice, and nothing in the practice data argues for a lower number.

He carries the No. 1 DFS Optimal play at 51.7 percent. Chalky tournament anchor with the ceiling to justify the salary.

Run your own EcoSave 200 simulation: https://fastlap.io/trucks/simulator

Christopher Bell, starts P5, +600 pre-practice (book), 18.9 percent Win (model)

The single biggest practice standout of the field. Bell ran the most laps of any contender (61) and turned in 15 session-fastest laps, more than double the next driver on the list. His best-10 average was the fifth quickest at 23.235s with a modest +0.012 drop-off across a long stint. He qualified P5 with clean track position into the first stage.

Pre-practice the book had him at +600 implied 14.3 percent. Our model gave him 18.9 percent to win, the largest positive edge among the favorites. Practice strengthened that read in every column.

Get the full Truck Series power rankings: https://fastlap.io/trucks/preview

Ty Majeski, starts P2, +1400 pre-practice (book)

The newest face in the contender tier and the cleanest qualifying story of the week. Majeski qualified P2 with a single-lap practice time of 22.540s, tied for the fastest lap of the entire session. His best-10 average sat at 23.268s, and he posted 6 session-fastest laps in only 26 timed laps.

Starting P2 on a one-mile concrete oval where passing for the lead is structurally hard is a significant tail in your favor. At a pre-practice +1400 (6.7 percent implied), this is the line on the board that the book was likely to redraw the most aggressively post-qualifying.

Three sleepers our model likes after practice

Mid-tier prices where the practice pace and starting position justify exposure even at the longer odds.

Ben Rhodes, starts P12, +5000 pre-practice (book), 1.7 percent Win (model)

The model's purest tire-saver of the weekend. Rhodes finished practice at No. 3 in best-10 average after 10 laps at 23.184s, and critically his slope was -0.004 sec/lap, which means he was getting marginally faster as the session wore on, not falling off. He starts P12, well inside the top half. His 32.9 percent Top-10 pre-practice probability looks low after practice showed long-run pace this consistent.

Brandon Jones, starts P6, +2500 pre-practice (book), 5.4 percent Win (model)

The clean combination play. Jones qualified P6, giving him real track position into the first stage, and his best-10 average ranked No. 11 at 23.359s with a flat +0.006 slope. Pre-practice he was already a model-positive edge versus the book's 3.8 percent implied. Practice confirms the take, and the front-row-six qualifying lifts it further.

William Sawalich, starts P23, top-4 practice pace

The tournament-only play of the week. Sawalich posted the No. 4 best-10 average in practice at 23.222s and showed a negative drop-off slope (-0.010 sec/lap), two of the strongest signals on the board. The catch is he qualified P23. On a track where passing is at a premium that's a steep climb from 23rd to a podium, but it's also the kind of starting-position discount that makes a single big-finish tournament outcome line up with a non-chalk salary at $7,800.

Compare any two of these drivers head-to-head: https://fastlap.io/trucks/head-to-head

Where our model sees the biggest edges after practice

Pulling it all together: three plays where the practice and qualifying data combined to either confirm a pre-existing model edge or open a new one.

Kyle Busch confirmed all the way through. P1 in practice, P1 on the grid, flat drop-off, 26.2 percent to win. Both sides of the market agree he's the favorite. The book may shorten his price now that the pole is in.

Christopher Bell is the clearest standout. Most session-fastest laps of any driver by a wide margin. P5 starting position. The +4.6 point pre-practice edge over the book's 14.3 percent implied looks larger after Friday's pace.

Ty Majeski is the closing-window play. Starts P2 with the joint-fastest single lap of practice. The pre-practice +1400 line will not survive the weekend, but as long as the new line drops he's the cleanest pole-adjacent value.

Honorable mentions, both with practice signals stronger than their pre-practice prices: Giovanni Ruggiero (P2 in practice, P3 start, +1200 pre-practice) and Kaden Honeycutt (11 session-fastest laps, P4 start, +425 pre-practice). Both deserve exposure.

See the full odds + edge board across all three series: https://fastlap.io/edges

How to use FASTLAP this race week

Run your own 10k sim at https://fastlap.io/trucks/simulator with custom boosts, equipment handicaps, and dominator picks. Practice data is loaded; the sim incorporates the best-10-after-10 practice metric into every projection.

Browse the Truck Series power rankings at https://fastlap.io/trucks/preview for the full short-track, tire-combo, and pit-crew sub-ranks for every driver in the field.

Check the live Top Edges board at https://fastlap.io/edges to see every priced driver across Cup, O'Reilly, and Trucks ranked by where our model agrees and disagrees with the book.

Browse the full lap-by-lap practice visualization at https://fastlap.io/trucks/practice. The speed-map heatmap shows every driver's rank on every lap. Tap a cell for the exact time and rank.

Sign in free during beta at https://fastlap.io/pricing. Every tool is unlocked for signed-in users while we're tuning the model.