EcoSave 200 Preview: Dover Truck Series Picks, Odds & Power Rankings

NASCAR's Truck Series rolls to Dover Motor Speedway for the EcoSave 200 on Friday, May 15 at 5:00 PM ET for the first time in many years. Practice runs Friday at 12:30 PM ET, with qualifying immediately after at 1:40 PM ET, and 200 laps under green afterward.

Our 10,000-iteration race simulator has Kyle Busch as the clear chalk, but it sees one major value among the favorites and three sleepers worth a longer look. Here's the full preview.

The track: Dover in a Truck

The Monster Mile is the schedule's only 1.0-mile concrete oval banked at 24° — closer in feel to a high-banked half-mile than to other 1-mile flat tracks. Passing is at a premium, tire fall-off rules the late runs of each stage, and pit-road timing is amplified by the short pit window between cycles. Stage lengths are 45 / 90 / 200.

Trucks use the D-6106 left / D-6148 right compound here — the same setup used at the Xfinity Series race the next day. Drivers with strong recent results on this combo earn a noticeable edge in our power-ranking weights.

Top contenders by the book

Kyle Busch — +375 (book), 26.2 percent Win (model)

Kyle Busch is the consensus top driver with both the book and our model in lockstep. He sits at No. 1 in our composite power rankings, No. 2 on short-track average running position, and his pit crew ranks No. 2 in average in-box time — a setup that compounds at Dover where pit-road delta dictates the running order. Our sim gives him a 75.4 percent chance of a top-5 and 89.3 percent of a top-10, with a mean DK score of 70.7. He's also the No. 1 DFS Optimal play at 51.7 percent — a chalky tournament anchor with the ceiling to justify the salary.

Run your own EcoSave 200 simulation: https://fastlap.io/trucks/simulator

Christopher Bell — +600 (book), 18.9 percent Win (model)

This is the best price on the board. Bell is a Cup Series regular making a one-off Truck start, and the book has him at +600 (14.3 percent implied). Our model — which leans on his track-type rank (No. 5 on short tracks) and his elite caliber — gives him a 18.9 percent chance to win. That's a +4.6 point edge over the book's implied probability, the largest gap among the favorites. Top-5 probability sits at 67.1 percent, Top-10 at 86.4 percent.

If you're looking for one favorite to play against the field, Bell is it. He carries the second-highest Optimal percent on the board at 41.6 percent.

Christian Eckes — +1400 (book), 8.2 percent Win (model)

The model's favorite outright story this week. Eckes is No. 1 in short-track average running position and No. 1 on the D-6106 left tire compound — the two single most predictive signals at Dover. Our sim has him at 8.2 percent to win, slightly ahead of his book-implied 6.7 percent, and at 32.1 percent Top-5 — better than several drivers shorter than his +1400 price. Composite power rank: No. 6.

The catch: his pit crew rank is No. 23, which is why our model isn't even more bullish. Worth a play; not worth max exposure.

Get the full Truck Series power rankings: https://fastlap.io/trucks/preview

Three sleepers our model likes

Mid-tier and longshot drivers where our simulator's Win percent sits above the book's implied probability.

Brandon Jones — +2500 (book), 5.4 percent Win (model)

Quietly priced at $8,500 with a 5.4 percent win share in our sim versus the book's 3.8 percent implied. He's not a popular pick this week, but the long-format finish probabilities are favorable: 22.6 percent Top-5, 42.9 percent Top-10. A small slice of exposure with real outright equity.

Daniel Hemric — +6600 (book), 1.3 percent Win (model)

The model's deep-longshot value. Hemric ranks No. 7 overall on the D-6148 right tire compound — a quiet edge that doesn't show up on highlight reels but matters at Dover where tire choice drives long-run pace. His 36.3 percent Top-10 probability at a +6600 price is the kind of mid-pack outcome that pays in DFS without needing a win.

Grant Enfinger — +5000 (book), 2.7 percent Win (model)

No. 8 on short-track average running position and No. 6 on the D-6148 right tire — fundamentals that don't get rewarded in the betting market, but our sim picks up on. Top-10 probability is 40.6 percent. If chalk-and-cash is your tournament shape, Enfinger is the contrarian-but-defensible play around $7,500.

Compare any two of these drivers head-to-head: https://fastlap.io/trucks/head-to-head

Where our model sees the biggest edges

Pulling it all together — these are the three plays where our 10,000-iteration sim has the largest Win percent advantage over the book's implied probability:

Kyle Busch — model 26.2 percent vs. market 21.1 percent implied (+5.1 point edge). Both sides agree he's the favorite, but the model says the line is short.

Christopher Bell — model 18.9 percent vs. market 14.3 percent implied (+4.6 point edge). The standout price among the favorites.

Brandon Jones — model 5.4 percent vs. market 3.8 percent implied (+1.6 point edge). Cleanest sleeper of the week at +2500.

See the full odds + edge board across all three series: https://fastlap.io/edges

How to use FASTLAP this race week

Run your own 10k sim at https://fastlap.io/trucks/simulator with custom boosts, equipment handicaps, and dominator picks. Toggle drivers in and out of the field, override starts.

Browse the Truck Series power rankings at https://fastlap.io/trucks/preview — full short-track, tire-combo, and pit-crew sub-ranks for every driver in the field.

Check the live Top Edges board at https://fastlap.io/edges — every priced driver across Cup, Xfinity, and Trucks ranked by where our model agrees and disagrees with the book.

Sign in free during beta at https://fastlap.io/pricing — every tool is unlocked for signed-in users while we're tuning the model.