NC Education Lottery 200 Preview: Truck Picks, Odds & Rankings for Charlotte
· FASTLAP
NASCAR's Truck Series kicks off Charlotte race weekend with the North Carolina Education Lottery 200 on Friday, May 22 at 7:30 PM ET, a 134-lap sprint around the 1.5-mile Charlotte oval and the opening act of Memorial Day weekend at the home-state track. Practice runs Friday at 3:30 PM ET, qualifying at 4:35 PM ET, green flag under the lights at 7:30 PM ET.
Kyle Busch is out this weekend because of illness.
The book has the top of the board jammed tight — Connor Zilisch at +350, Kaden Honeycutt at +450, and Ross Chastain at +550 together account for 82.5% of the implied probability. Our 10,000-iteration race simulator agrees on the rough order but says the field is more open than that — those same four add up to 54.7% of model win share, a 28-point gap that the rest of the field absorbs. The biggest positive edge sits a few rungs down at Grant Enfinger (+2800), who also quietly leads the entire slate in DFS Optimal %.
The track: Charlotte in a Truck
Charlotte is a 1.5-mile asphalt intermediate banked at 24° in the turns, the prototype for the modern intermediate package. For the Truck Series, the lower-downforce package puts more emphasis on right-side tire management and driver feel through the long Turn 1–2 sweeper. Restarts stack three-wide and pit road timing matters even over a sprint length. Stage lengths are 30 / 60 / 134.
Trucks run the D-6110 left / D-6160 right Goodyear compound at Charlotte, the same combo the O'Reilly Series will use the next day. Cross-series tire reads from past Charlotte weekends give us a useful base rate for right-side fall-off late in each stage.
See the full Charlotte Truck Series historical track stats →
Top contenders by the book
Run your own NC Lottery 200 simulation →
Connor Zilisch, +350 (book), 15.2% Win (model)
The second-shortest line on the board at +350 (22.2% implied). The book is bullish on Zilisch's recent form and rookie caliber. Our model is more cautious: just 15.2% to win, a 7-point haircut from book driven by an essentially-zero sample at the track (0 Charlotte starts, 1 intermediate Truck start) in our data. Top-5 still sits at 57.3% and Top-10 at 81.8%, so the upside is real — but the betting market is pricing him at full strength on a track where we have almost nothing to lean on. $11,500 salary, 29.2% Optimal — chalky but not the highest-conviction DFS lock at this price.
Kaden Honeycutt, +450 (book), 9.0% Win (model)
The third book favorite at +450 (18.2% implied), but the model has him much lower at 9.0% to win — a 9-point gap, the largest among the favorites. Honeycutt brings real in-series intermediate experience (2 Charlotte / 26 intermediate Truck starts), and the model still rates him as the third most likely outright winner. But the book is pricing him into the chalk tier while the projection has him meaningfully behind Zilisch. Top-5 of 45.2%, Top-10 of 76.4%, $11,000 salary, 23.8% Optimal. Fine cash-game anchor; the leverage spots live further down the board.
Get the full Truck Series power rankings →
Three sleepers our model likes
Mid-tier drivers where our simulator's Win % sits above the book's implied probability — or where the DFS Optimal % is elite for the salary.
Grant Enfinger, +2800 (book), 5.9% Win (model)
The story of the slate. Enfinger is at +2800 (3.4% implied), and our model gives him a 5.9% chance to win — a +2.5% edge, the largest positive gap of any priced driver on the board. He brings the deepest sample of any contender at 3 Charlotte / 37 intermediate Truck starts, and the model rewards it: Top-5 of 36.0%, Top-10 of 69.6%, mean DK of 43.6 on a $7,600 salary. And the DFS angle is exceptional — 44.3% Optimal. If you're hunting one driver to overweight this week, this is the line.
Ty Majeski, +1800 (book), 5.6% Win (model)
Majeski mirrors Enfinger's profile at a slightly higher salary: 3 Charlotte / 37 intermediate Truck starts and a model that has him essentially flat with book (5.6% vs 5.3% implied, +0.3% edge). What earns him sleeper status is the DFS side — 33.7% Optimal at $8,500 makes him one of the most efficient salary plays in the mid-tier. Top-5 of 35.9%, Top-10 of 69.6%, mean DK of 43.5. A defensible play across most lineup constructions, particularly tournaments.
Ben Rhodes, +5000 (book), 2.5% Win (model)
The model's deeper-priced positive-edge play. Rhodes is at +5000 (2.0% implied) with a 2.5% model Win (+0.5% edge), and the experience profile is identical to Enfinger and Majeski: 3 Charlotte / 37 intermediate Truck starts. Where Rhodes really shines is DFS Optimal: 34.4% at a $7,500 salary is GPP-anchor territory at a sub-$8K price. Top-10 of 41.7%, mean DK of 36.3. The cleanest deep-longshot play of the night.
Compare any two of these drivers head-to-head →
Where our model sees the biggest edges
Pulling it all together, these are the three plays where our 10,000-iteration sim has a Win % above the book's implied probability — the only positive edges on the entire board this week.
Grant Enfinger, model 5.9% vs market 3.4% implied (+2.5% edge). The biggest positive gap of any priced driver. Real intermediate sample and the #1 Optimal % on the board.
Ben Rhodes, model 2.5% vs market 2.0% implied (+0.5% edge). The deeper-priced Enfinger comp. Same experience profile, sub-$8K salary, 34.4% Optimal.
Ty Majeski, model 5.6% vs market 5.3% implied (+0.3% edge). Effectively flat with book on Win %, but 33.7% Optimal at $8,500 is a strong salary anchor.
See the full odds + edge board across all three series →
How to use FASTLAP this race week
Run your own 10k sim with custom boosts, equipment handicaps, and dominator picks. Toggle drivers in and out of the field, override starts.
Browse the Truck Series power rankings, full intermediate, tire-combo, and pit-crew sub-ranks for every driver in the field.
Check the free Odds Board, every priced driver across Cup, O'Reilly, and Trucks with book odds, de-vigged fair %, and DK salary side by side.
Read the weekly Race Brief, our LLM-assisted setup / favorites / leverage / fade / DFS notes, refreshed each race week.
Subscribe to FASTLAP Pro to unlock the full simulator, Race Brief, and head-to-head matchups.
Frequently asked
When does the North Carolina Education Lottery 200 start?
The North Carolina Education Lottery 200 NASCAR Truck Series race goes green Friday, May 22, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Practice runs Friday at 3:30 PM ET and qualifying at 4:35 PM ET. The race is 134 laps for 200 miles around the 1.5-mile oval.
What kind of track is Charlotte Motor Speedway?
harlotte is a 1.5-mile asphalt intermediate oval banked at 24° in the turns. It's the prototype for the modern intermediate package — wide enough to race three-wide on restarts, long enough on the backstretch to reward straight-line speed, and steep enough in the corners to put real load on right-side tires through long runs.
How is Charlotte different in a Truck versus a Cup car?
Trucks run a lower-downforce package than the Next Gen Cup car, which puts more emphasis on right-side tire management and driver feel through Turn 1–2. Pit-road timing still matters but with fewer green-flag stops in a 200-mile race, qualifying lane choice and the first round of stops carry an outsized share of finishing position.
What tire compounds is NASCAR using for the Truck race at Charlotte?
NASCAR's Truck Series will run the D-6110 left-side compound and the D-6160 right-side compound at Charlotte, the same tires the O'Reilly Series uses the next day. Drivers with strong recent results on this combo earn a noticeable edge in our power-ranking weights.
Who has the biggest edge in the NC Lottery 200?
Grant Enfinger has the biggest model edge on the board at +2800 — our 10,000-iteration sim gives him a 5.9% chance to win versus the book's 3.4% implied, a +2.5% gap. He also leads the entire slate in DFS Optimal % at 44.3% on a $7,600 salary.