Pocono O'Reilly Betting and DFS Picks & Predictions: MillerTech Battery 250

The O'Reilly Series hits the Tricky Triangle on Saturday, and our model has already run the MillerTech Battery 250 ten thousand times. Below: the full Pocono power rankings, where our projections disagree with the betting market, and the lineup leverage plays that decide tournaments.

Race: MillerTech Battery 250 · Pocono Raceway · Saturday, June 13, 5:00pm ET
Tires: Goodyear D-6106 left / D-6134 right
Practice/Qualifying: Saturday morning — power rankings update with long-run pace data as soon as the session ends.

The headline: the model and the sportsbooks disagree about the favorite

Justin Allgaier is the betting favorite at +350 — an implied 22.2% chance to win. Our simulation gives him 9.1%.

That's the biggest model-vs-market gap on the board, and it's worth understanding why. Allgaier's resume here is genuinely elite: #1 in intermediate-track running position, #1 on the D-6106 left-side compound, #1 in Pocono dominance (laps led + fast laps). He ranks #2 in our overall composite. The veteran is going to run up front.

But running up front and closing are different skills in the sim. His right-side tire compound rank (#10) and the strength of the field ahead of him compress his win equity. The model sees a driver with a high floor — 44.6% to finish top-5, 77.8% top-10 — whose price has him as a 1-in-4.5 winner when the data says 1-in-11. At +350, the market is overpaying for the form.

Who the model actually likes

Connor Zilisch is the #1 driver in our Pocono composite — #1 in track running position, #2 at intermediates, top-4 in both tire compounds. The sim gives him a 21.1% win probability against a 16.7% implied price (+500). That's a positive edge on the second choice in the market, which is exactly the kind of disagreement worth acting on.

William Byron, dropping down from Cup, is the sim's top raw number: 23.4% to win, 68.9% top-5, 87.7% top-10, and a field-best 55.5 mean DraftKings points. His +400 price (20.0% implied) is close to fair — less edge than Zilisch, but the highest ceiling in the field. At $12,500 he's the chalk anchor your cash lineups are built around.

Corey Day, $9,700, projects to 12.4% to win against an 11.1% implied price — but the real story is his floor: 65.5% top-5 and 88.5% top-10, essentially identical to drivers costing $2,500+ more. He lands in the optimal $50K lineup in 39.4% of simulations, third-best on the entire slate behind only Byron and Zilisch.

A mid-priced driver with anchor-level floor and a live win ceiling is the single most valuable thing a DFS slate can offer. The market hasn't caught up to Day at Pocono. The model has.

Leverage and salary savers

• Sam Mayer ($9,200) — 33.5% optimal rate at a 5.9% implied win price. The #2 rank on the right-side compound is doing quiet work here; the sim likes his long-run pace profile far more than +1600 suggests.
• Harrison Burton ($6,800) — the classic punt-with-a-pulse: 0% win equity but a 21.6% optimal rate, because at his price he doesn't need to contend, just survive into the teens. Four career Pocono starts of experience help.
• Brent Crews ($10,500) — #3 in the composite on intermediate pace alone (no Pocono history yet). The sim is more cautious (4.7% win) than his +800 price. Slight market fade for us — the rookie tax at a track that punishes inexperience in Turn 1 is real.
• Cole Custer ($7,100) — the composite's biggest oddity: #8 overall on track history (#2 on the left-side tire, #2 in dominance), priced at +7500 due to the equipment. The sim's win number rounds to zero, but a 16.4% optimal rate at $7,100 means the lineups that gamble on the resume get paid if it shows up.
  

How these numbers are made

Every projection above comes from the FASTLAP Race Simulator: 10,000 simulated runnings of Saturday's race, built from track history, intermediate-track form, performance on the D-6106/D-6134 tire combination, dominance data, and (once it lands Saturday) practice long-run pace. Win %, top-5/top-10 floors, Optimal Lineup rates, Win % stability bands, and projected laps led / fast laps / typical finish are all direct sim output.

Free accounts get the data boards — results, track stats, pit stops, and the odds board. FASTLAP Pro unlocks the simulator itself: run your own sims with your own opinions baked in (mark your dominators, boost the drivers you trust, set the chaos level), see the full projection table for every driver, build lineups from the top-20 optimal grid, and get the Likely Finishes and Normalized Single Race breakdowns this article pulls from.

Projections are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Lines referenced were current at publication and will move.