Sports Illustrated Resorts 250: Nashville O'Reilly Projections & Odds

The O'Reilly Series runs the Sports Illustrated Resorts 250 on Saturday, May 30 at 7:30 PM ET at Nashville Superspeedway, a 1.333-mile concrete intermediate with 14° of banking. The race goes 188 laps, with stages ending on laps 45 / 90 / 188. Cars run the D-6110 left-side and D-6148 right-side compound, a familiar intermediate combination where long-run balance and track position decide the back half of the race.

These numbers come from our 10,000-run O'Reilly Series simulator, the live market odds, and the DraftKings pricing. You can rerun every number yourself, and build your own lineup pool, in the Simulator.

Top of the Board

One car sits well clear of the field, with a cluster behind it:

• Kyle Larson (+150, $15,500) is the model's clear No. 1 at 30.9% to win, with a field-best 71.0 projected DK mean and a 91.4% top-10 number. The book prices him even shorter than that (40.0% implied), so the floor is elite but it is the largest salary commitment on the slate.
• Justin Allgaier (+400, $12,500) comes in at 14.4% to win with a 54.0 DK mean and an 85.1% top-10 floor, a steady veteran option.
• Brent Crews (+800, $11,000) projects at 10.9% to win with a 53.7 DK mean. The model and the book essentially agree on his price.
• Austin Hill (+1400, $8,500) is the standout value: 9.8% to win against just 6.7% implied, with the board's highest optimal rate (35.5%) at a mid-range salary.
• Corey Day (+800, $10,500) sits at 9.4% to win with a 53.1 DK mean and an 83.7% top-10 number.
• Sam Mayer (+1200, $9,500) rounds out the group at 9.1% to win with a 49.6 DK mean.

See the full driver-by-driver composite on the Power Rankings board.

Model Edges: Win Equity vs. the Book

The board is favorite-heavy, so the positive gaps are narrow but clear:

1. Austin Hill: 9.8% model vs. 6.7% book (+3.1 pts, +1400)
2. Sam Mayer: 9.1% model vs. 7.7% book (+1.4 pts, +1200)

Testing a specific matchup bet? Drop any two cars into the Head-to-Head tool to get the simulated win-the-matchup probability before you place it.

DFS Value & Leverage

The salary-to-projection picture points to several mid-tier cars:

• Austin Hill ($8,500): the highest optimal rate on the board at 35.5%, on a 44.2 DK mean. The top combination of price and leverage in the $50K optimal.
• Carson Kvapil ($8,200): a 42.3 DK mean, a 77.2% top-10 number, and a 33.3% optimal at a value price.
• Sheldon Creed ($9,000): a 48.2 DK mean and a 33.9% optimal, a strong mid-tier core play.
• Sam Mayer ($9,500): a 49.6 DK mean and a 31.6% optimal.
• Sammy Smith ($7,800): a 37.5 DK mean and a 31.5% optimal, the best points per dollar in the value tier.

Cheaper leverage: Harrison Burton ($7,200) carries a 21.2% optimal on a 29.5 DK mean. Punt option: Dean Thompson ($6,700) has a 17.4% optimal and a 25.3 DK mean.

Saturday Edges: Practice & Pit Road

Practice, qualifying, and the race all run Saturday, so the cleanest read on real speed is long-run pace rather than the time sheet. The Practice Analyzer ranks every car by 10- and 20-lap averages and best-lap consistency as soon as the session posts, so you can confirm or fade these projections before lineups lock.

Nashville's concrete surface and three stages put a premium on track position, which makes pit road a tiebreaker. The Pit Stop Analyzer ranks each team's average and best stop times, so you know which contenders gain spots on pit road and which give them back.

How to Use This Week

• Simulator: run your own 10,000-race distribution and generate an optimized lineup pool.
• Power Rankings: the full field composite, including the odds anchor.
• Head-to-Head: simulated matchup-win probabilities for prop and DFS H2H bets.
• Practice Analyzer: long-run speed and consistency once Saturday practice posts.
• Pit Stop Analyzer: crew-by-crew stop times and track-position impact.

Get the Full Board

Create a free account toget access to all data, then go Pro to unlock the full simulator, every projection and optimal percentage, the complete odds board, and the Practice and Pit Stop analyzers for all three series. Create your free account or see Pro plans. New tools and race previews post every weekend. Already a member? Sign in here.