2026 Bully Hill Vineyards 176 DFS Picks: Truck Series Watkins Glen Picks

Qualifying is officially in the books, and the starting grid is set for the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series at Watkins Glen International.

If you are building DraftKings lineups or placing bets today, you have to completely change your approach. Road courses throw standard oval track numbers out the window. Passing is incredibly difficult here, so clean air and track position mean everything. However, with the grid now locked, a few massive place differential opportunities have opened up that will completely shape the slate.

I ran the updated starting lineup through the FASTLAP composite model. Here is what the data, the practice speeds, and the starting grid show for today's Bully Hill Vineyards 176.

The Heavyweights: A Three-Horse Race

By most accounts, this is a three-horse race at the top of the board. The DraftKings pricing and ownership projections reflect a tight battle between three elite road racers, but the equipment situations tell completely different stories.

Brent Crews ($11,000) • Starts 1st Brent Crews has arrived. He will go off as the race favorite after being the fastest in both practice and qualifying by a large margin. He has a massive equipment advantage in the Tricon Toyota, and there is a real shot he leads every single lap today. It’s really just a matter of the guys behind him building tire delta, or Crews getting caught up in a weird pit cycle. He will be highly owned, but you probably need to match the field here.

Connor Zilisch ($15,000) • Starts 5th Zilisch is an absolute prodigy on road courses, but he is priced at a massive premium. He will be wheeling the No. 71 Spire truck today. While he underperformed in Spire gear at the Roval last year, these trucks have clearly improved in 2026. Given his $15K salary, he will likely be the lowest owned of the top three dominators. That makes him an incredible leverage play with elite raw speed.

Shane van Gisbergen ($14,000) • Starts 8th All things equal, SVG probably wins this race going away. However, his Niece Motorsports equipment is simply not on the same level as Tricon and Spire. Where SVG can build a delta is through elite tire management, but that is a lot of speed to make up against Crews and Zilisch. He is a great tournament play, but his ceiling might be capped by the truck underneath him.

The Top Truck Series Regulars

If you are looking past the heavy favorites, the FASTLAP data highlights a few full-time Truck Series drivers who excel on road courses and offer great value.

Ty Majeski ($8,100) • Starts 2nd Majeski is starting on the front row and is a really solid road racer. He ranks first in our overall road course average running position and has run inside the top 10 in his last seven road course starts. He doesn't have massive dominator upside compared to the ringers, but he should easily hang in the top five.

Tyler Ankrum ($7,700) • Starts 18th Ankrum boasts a super solid average running position specifically at Watkins Glen. Starting back in 18th gives him a solid floor with place differential upside. He is a very steady DFS play who won't break your salary cap.

Ringers and Place Differential Core Plays

With the starting lineup set, a few massive place differential targets have emerged. These are the drivers you need to anchor your cash games and single-entry lineups.

Ross Chastain ($9,000) • Starts 33rd Chastain is the absolute chalk of the slate. He is dropping down from the Cup Series, ranks second in our Watkins Glen dominance metric, and is starting dead last among the competitive trucks. He is an obvious, lock-button Core PD play. Don't overthink this one.

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,500) • Starts 16th Allmendinger knows exactly how to get around The Glen. He is piloting a Kaulig RAM today, which comes with a distinct speed disadvantage, but AJ's raw road-racing skill gap should be enough to pull him well into the top ten. Starting 16th gives him great PD upside.

Andres Perez De Lara ($6,600) • Starts 22nd APL is a fantastic value play today. He was fantastic at St. Pete's earlier this year and ran really well at Watkins Glen last year before finding trouble late. Starting 22nd, he is a really solid Core play if he can stay out of the carnage.

Dawson Sutton ($5,500) • Starts 27th If you need salary relief to afford the heavyweights, look at Sutton. He ran well inside the top 20 all day here last year and was good at St. Pete's. He also brings a great pit crew. Starting 27th makes him a very safe Core punt play.

The Pit Crew Advantage

Because passing on the track is so difficult at Watkins Glen, gaining spots on pit road is incredibly valuable. A slow stop will ruin a driver's day.

Right now, Kaden Honeycutt ($8,500 • Starts 7th) has the fastest crew on pit road. That elite pit crew gives him a huge advantage to gain track position during green-flag cycles if he can maintain his top-10 starting spot.

FASTLAP Race Day Tools

Here's the thing about road courses. They are unpredictable, and passing is tough. If you want to find the actual mathematical advantages before lock, you need to look at the data yourself.

We have three tools you should use before the green flag drops today:

1. The Track Edge Database Use the FASTLAP Track Stats page to look at the Course Delta. This shows you exactly who over-performs their normal career baseline specifically on road courses. It is the easiest way to find sleeper picks.

2. The 10,000 Race Simulator Now that the starting grid is locked, plug the field into the FASTLAP Simulator. It runs 10,000 Monte Carlo race simulations using our loop data and pit road metrics to show you the exact optimal lineups based on where everyone is starting today.

3. Head-to-Head Betting Tool If you are betting on the race, do not just guess on the driver matchups. Run them through the Head-to-Head tool to find the actual win probabilities and see where the sportsbooks made a mistake.