2026 Würth 400 DFS Picks: Texas Motor Speedway Data

The Texas Motor Speedway Blueprint

Texas Motor Speedway is a high-speed, 1.5-mile intermediate track characterized by its repaved surface and asymmetrical corner banking. In the Cup Series, aerodynamic dependency and clean air place a massive premium on track position.

Winning GPP tournament lineups at Texas require a dominator-heavy approach. Relying purely on place differential is mathematically suboptimal when laps led and fastest lap points dictate the top of the leaderboard. To build a ceiling lineup for the Würth 400, you must target drivers who specifically excel on this unique layout.

Intermediate Track Performance & Power Rankings

To find true dominator potential, we first isolate performance specifically on 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. The data clearly highlights who is actually controlling these races versus who is just surviving them.

Check the full power rankings and dominator projections at the FASTLAP Preview Hub.

Top Intermediate Track Performers

• Denny Hamlin: Ranks #1 in Intermediate Average Running Position. While his pure Texas running position dips slightly to #12, his baseline intermediate speed and #1 ranking on the left-side tire make him a top-tier threat.
• Tyler Reddick: Ranks #3 in Intermediate Average Run. He pairs that elite baseline with a #2 average running position specifically at Texas, establishing a massive floor and ceiling.
• Kyle Larson: Ranks #4 in Intermediate Average Run, but bolsters that with the absolute #1 average running position at Texas. He dictates the pace of this race.

The Course Delta: Track Edge

Identifying drivers who over-perform on Texas Motor Speedway's geometry is critical for isolating value. The Track Edge metric in the FASTLAP Track Stats database directly compares a driver's specific rating at Texas against their standard career baseline.

Top Track Edge Performers: Texas Motor Speedway

1. Kyle Larson: 8.5 Avg Run | Track Edge: +20.7
2. Erik Jones: 14.7 Avg Run | Track Edge: +17.9
3. Bubba Wallace: 12.8 Avg Run | Track Edge: +17.2
4. Tyler Reddick: 9.3 Avg Run | Track Edge: +12.1
5. William Byron: 10.6 Avg Run | Track Edge: +11.5

Kyle Larson is the undisputed mathematical alpha. Not only is he the overall slate favorite, but he outpaces his already elite career baseline by a staggering 20.7 points when racing at Texas.

For salary relief and GPP leverage, Erik Jones is a standout target. Jones generates a massive +17.9 Track Edge with a top-15 average running position, meaning he drastically outperforms his equipment here

The Tire Combo & Texas Dominance

This weekend, Goodyear brings the D-5284 left-side and D-5290 right-side tire combination. When blending these tire metrics with pure Texas Dominance (Laps Led + Fast Laps), the FASTLAP composite algorithm separates the contenders from the pretenders.

• Kyle Larson (Overall Rank: 1): Ranks #1 in Texas Dominance, #1 on the D-5290 right-side tire, and #1 in the overall tire combo metric. He is the primary lock for dominator points.
• Tyler Reddick (Overall Rank: 2): Ranks #2 in Texas Dominance and top-3 across both left and right-side tire metrics. He is the clear pivot or pairing for Larson in high-upside builds.
• Chris Buescher (Overall Rank: 5): A massive leverage play. While his raw dominator stats rank #12, he boasts a #4 average running position at Texas and top-6 metrics across both tire compounds.

The Pit Road Variable

Texas Motor Speedway features a highly penalizing pit road. A single mistake during a green-flag cycle destroys track position and immediately eliminates dominator potential in clean air.

When analyzing our live data at the Fastlap Pitstops Hub, the elite tier separates. Tyler Reddick carries a massive red flag here, ranking #15 in average in-box time. If you are rostering Reddick, you are relying entirely on raw track speed to overcome pit road losses.

Conversely, Chase Elliott (#3), Chris Buescher (#4), and Kyle Larson (#5) are supported by elite over-the-wall crews, meaning they will inherently gain track position and control restarts during green-flag cycles.

FASTLAP Simulator: Open Beta LIVE

The fastlap.io Monte Carlo simulation enginewill be in Open Beta for the Würth 400.

The algorithm processes thousands of race outcomes using our loop data, composite ratings, track edge deltas, and pit road metrics to output a range of outcomes for this race.

• Filter the driver pool by ceiling projections, baseline floors, and optimal probabilities.
• Identify the exact drivers breaking the pricing algorithm.

Access the engine directly at fastlap.io/simulator.