2026 Würth 400 DFS Picks & Texas Motor Speedway Data

The Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway is this weekend.

Here's the thing about Texas: you need drivers who run up front and lead laps. Picking guys who start in the back just to get place differential points rarely works here. Clean air is too important on this track, and track position dictates the entire race. You have to find the guys who will dominate.

I ran the numbers through the FASTLAP composite model. We looked at intermediate track history, practice speeds, and the exact Goodyear tire combo they are using this weekend.

Here is what the data shows for your DraftKings lineups.

The Texas Motor Speedway Blueprint

Texas Motor Speedway is a fast, 1.5-mile intermediate track. The repaved surface and asymmetrical corner banking make it incredibly tough to pass the leader. Aerodynamics rule the day.

If you want to win a big GPP tournament, you need a dominator-heavy approach. Relying purely on guys to move up through the field is mathematically a bad idea when laps led and fastest lap points control the top of the leaderboard. You need the cars that actually dictate the pace.

Analyzing the Intermediate & Tire Data

To find true dominator potential, we first isolate performance specifically on 1.5-mile intermediate tracks.

When we look at intermediate tracks as a whole, Denny Hamlin ranks first in average running position. Tyler Reddick is third, and Kyle Larson is fourth. But at Texas specifically, Larson jumps to first. Reddick also moves up to second in average running position here. They clearly separate themselves from the pack.

The Goodyear D-5284 & D-5290 Tire Combo

Goodyear is bringing the D-5284 left-side and D-5290 right-side tires this weekend.

Kyle Larson ranks first on that right-side tire and first in our overall tire combo metric. Reddick is right behind him, ranking in the top three on both the left and right sides.

Chris Buescher also runs really well on these specific tires. He boasts a fourth-place average running position at Texas and ranks in the top six for both of these tire compounds. He is a great mid-tier target.

Practice Speeds: Who Showed Early Pace?

Practice speeds give us a good idea of who brought a fast car right off the truck.

Tyler Reddick really stood out in our FASTLAP practice analyzer. He had the fastest long-run pace of anyone in the field. That is exactly what you want for a track where long green-flag runs are common.

William Byron and Denny Hamlin both showed a lot of early speed, popping to the top of the charts on the short runs. You can check the full lap-by-lap charts on the FASTLAP practice page to see exactly when their lap times started to fall off.

Finding the Course Delta with Track Edge

We use a metric called Track Edge to see who performs better at a specific track compared to their normal career numbers. This helps identify the true value plays on the slate.

• Kyle Larson: 8.5 Avg Run | Track Edge: +20.7
• Erik Jones: 14.7 Avg Run | Track Edge: +17.9
• Bubba Wallace: 12.8 Avg Run | Track Edge: +17.2
• Tyler Reddick: 9.3 Avg Run | Track Edge: +12.1
• William Byron: 10.6 Avg Run | Track Edge: +11.5

Larson is the obvious favorite here. His average running position is 8.5, which gives him a massive +20.7 Track Edge over his baseline.

But Erik Jones and Bubba Wallace also show huge improvements at Texas. Jones has a +17.9 Track Edge with a top-15 average running position, meaning he gets way more out of his equipment here than normal. Wallace is right there too with a +17.2 Track Edge. These are the guys who save you salary while still giving you a high ceiling.

The Pit Road Factor

Pit crews are a massive deal at Texas. If your driver makes a mistake during a green-flag pit cycle, they lose their track position and it is incredibly hard to get it back.

Right now, Christopher Bell has the fastest pit crew on pit road. Ty Gibbs, Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher, and Kyle Larson round out the top five. That gives those guys a nice safety net to gain spots under caution or control restarts.

On the other hand, Tyler Reddick's crew ranks 15th. He is fast on the track, but his team is slow in the box. If you roster Reddick, you are hoping he has enough raw speed to overcome bad pit stops. You can track all the live times during the race on our pit stops page.

FASTLAP Tools for the Würth 400

So here's the plan. Pick your dominators early, pay attention to who has a fast pit crew, and fill in the gaps with value guys like Erik Jones.

If you want to see how this all plays out before lock, the FASTLAP simulator is in Open Beta for the Würth 400. The algorithm takes all our loop data, track edge numbers, and pit road speeds to process thousands of race outcomes. You can simulate this race 10,000 times at fastlap.io/simulator.

And if you are looking at NASCAR betting odds this weekend, our head-to-head tool is the best way to analyze your wagers. It breaks down the specific driver matchups so you can find the actual math behind your bets.